It’s widely acknowledged that Anthony Albanese won the 2021 election thanks to the support he found in Western Australia.
On election night it might all be over before the polls close in Western Australia if the Liberals fail to make significant inroads in Victoria, but holding on to seats in WA will be key to Labor remaining in government.
Over the past three years Anthony Albanese has been a regular visitor to the West Coast, and it’s with good reason, there’s quite a few seats in play. He’s promised, that if he’s returned to The Lodge, he’ll make at least 30 trips to Western Australia in the next term of government.
These seats will be the ones to keep your eye on when the votes begin to be tallied.
Tangney
Labor had a surprise win when they picked up the seat at the 2021 election, following boundary realignments they notionally hold it with a margin of 2.8%
The seat had been in Liberal hands since 1984 with Peter Shack, Daryl Williams, Dennis Jensen, and then Ben Morton serving as members.
The incumbent member is Sam Lim, and he’s being challenged by conservative Howard Ong.
Initially the Liberals selected reality TV star Mark Wales as their candidate, and he pitched that head into parliament to stand up for J.K Rowling. He dropped out and was replaced by Ong who has a long association with the Australian Christian Lobby.
During the campaign high profile political figures including Senator Michaelia Cash, Liberal leader Peter Dutton, Senator Jacinta Nampijimpa Price, former PM John Howard have visited the seat, as has current PM Anthony Albanese.
The affluent electorate covers the southern shores of the Swan and Canning Rivers and takes in suburbs including Bicton, Ferndale, Murdoch, Canning Vale, Riverton, Rossmoyne, Applecross, Leeming Winthrop, and Kardinya. Approximately one in ten voters in the seat have Chinese ancestry.
Moore
After four terms in parliament the Liberal party has dumped the incumbent member Ian Goodenough and opted to run Vince Connelly in his place.
Goodenough, who is understandably miffed, has quit the party and will run as an independent. After four successful terms he’ll be hoping for personal rather than brand loyalty from voters. A former liberal winning the seat as an independent has precedent, in 1996 the Liberals Paul Filing faced a similar situation and won.
Vince Connolly previously represented the seat of Stirling that was abolished in 2022. He comes from a military background and has been the CEO of the RSL in WA.
Labor’s candidate is Tom French who is both a qualified electrician and lawyer, who has also worked in hospitality and business management. There’s also Community Independent Nathan Barton who has a strong presence on the ground; he comes from a military and mental health background.
The northern suburbs electorate covers Perth’s beachside suburbs running from Trigg to Iluka and Joondalup, lying generally west of the Mitchell Freeway and Lake Joondalup. It includes the suburbs of Carine, Marmion, Sorrento, Duncraig, Padbury, Hillarys, Kingsley, Woodvale, Craigie, Ocean Reef and Currambine.
The ALP held this seat for three terms from 1983 until 1990, but it’s fair to say a gazillion homes have been built since then. Moore is currently the only metropolitan seat in WA held by the Liberals.
Bullwinkel
This is a new seat that will be contested for the first time in 2025. It has been created out of parts of six other seats and accommodates for the rapid population growth in the seat of Hasluck.
On paper it’s a marginal Labor seat, but the campaign against Labor’s policy of stopping live sheep exports have been a big issue in this area. The Nationals and the Liberals are both putting up a candidate which might split the vote.
Former state Nationals leader Mia Davies certainly has the highest recognition level amongst the prominent candidates, but Labor have put a big campaign behind Trish Cook whose professional background is in nursing. She’s also served as a councilor in the Shire of Mundaring.
The Liberals Matt Moran also hails from the region and has spent his career in the media and the army. He is a former media adviser to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.
While much of the electorate covers regional areas of the Avon Valley with towns including Toodyay, York, Northam, Beverley, most of the people live on the west side of the electorate in Perth’s hills in areas like Kalamunda, Mundaring and Roleystone.
It’s been predicted that The Liberal’s Matt Moran will be the first ever member for Bullwinkel.
Canning
Shadow Defence Minister Andrew Hastie is considered one of the Coalition’s best performers and has been touted as a potential future Prime Minister, but he’s been largely absent from the national campaign.
That might be because he’s been struggling to explain comments that he previously made about his view that women should not service in combat roles, but it’s also been suggested he’s stayed close to home because of the tight margin of 1.2% his seat has.
Hastie, a former SAS soldier, has been the member since a by-election in 2015. Previous Liberal member Don Randall died suddenly in July and the by election was held a few months later.
A series of boundary changes have seen the southern suburbs seat move continually further south, which changes the makeup of the people within the seat. Labor’s candidate is Jarrad Goold, a former State Prosecutor.
Curtin
The eastern suburbs seat of Curtin has almost always been Liberal heartland, until the 2022 election saw independent Kate Chaney elected.
Prior to moving into politics Chaney worked in sustainability, Aboriginal affairs, innovation and strategy. He father is Westfarmers chairman Michael Chaney, and her grandfather Fred was Lord Mayor of Perth before becoming a minister in the Menzies government. Her uncle Fred Jr, was a minister in the Fraser government.
The seat takes in the suburb of West Perth, Subiaco, Scarborough, Floreat, Nedlands, Dalkeith and Peppermint Grove.
Former Foreign Minister Julie Bishop was the member for 21 years, and when she retired Celia Hammond was elected in 2019. Prior to Chaney’s election the seat has always been in Liberal hands except for a short period between 1996 and 1998 when Liberal MP Alan Rocher stood as an independent after losing preselection.
This time round the Liberal candidate is Tom White. He’s a former national president of the Young Liberals and worked as a policy adviser in the Barnett state government. He’s been a top executive at Uber working in Korea and Japan before setting up their WA operations.
This seat has a tight 1.3% margin, and the Liberal party has run a huge campaign as they try to regain the seat.
Pearce
On paper, this northern suburb division is a safe Labor seat, but a significant swing towards the Liberals in seats covering the same area at the WA state election has bolstered the party’s dreams of regaining Pearce.
Since it was created in 1990 the seat had been in Liberal hands, at the 2002 election former Mayor Joondalup Tracey Roberts won it for Labor. Former members including Fred Chaney Jr, former Howard government minister Judy Moylan, and former Attorney-General Andrew Hastie.
Boundary changes over the years have removed a lot of the rural parts of this seat and Perth’s expanding city limits have transformed into a mortgage belt area with lots of residents having big mortgages.
The Liberals will be hoping their policies for relieving cost of living pressures strike a chord with these voters. Their policy to reduce fuel prices for 12 months may be very appealing to people living in Burns Beach, Kinross and Two Rocks as it’s quite a commute into the city.
While the incumbent Labor member Roberts has an 8.8% margin, voters in this region overwhelmingly voted against Labor’s Voice to Parliament referendum, which is another reason the Liberals are hopefully of winning back the seat.
Their candidate is former state MP Jan Norberger. He migrated to Australia from Germany when he was 7 years old. His career saw him serve in the Australian air force before working in recruitment for the mining, construction and transport industries.
In February Roberts shared that had been diagnosed with multiple systems atrophy, a rare neurological condition that affects speech and movement. Robert said the diagnosis had not dampened her desire to serve the people of Pearce and is committed to serving a full term if reelected.
