Labor could win as many as additional 12 seats in the federal parliament if an election was held today according to the latest Newspoll published in The Australian newspaper.
Such a result would see Labor hold a majority of 80 seats in the House of Representatives and deliver a crushing defeat to the coalition. While political analysts have previously suggested a hung parliament, and Liberal and National members have been quick to suggest that Albanese would need to form a coalition with The Greens to form a government, the latest poll shows Labor could win an clear majority on it’s own.
In Western Australia several Liberal held seats are under-pressure with the latest figures showing the seat of Hasluck, currently held by Indigenous Affairs minister Ken Wyatt would fall, along with Pearce which is being vacated by Christian Porter, Tagney which is held by Ben Morton is also in doubt, as is the seat of Swan.
Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan has also suggested that the seat of Moore which Ian Goodenough has held since 2013 could also switch to Labor’s hands at the next poll.
Ken Wyatt is not the only cabinet minister whose seat is on shaky ground, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton may also be fighting for his political survival when the poll is called with his seat of Dickinson being targeted by Labor.
In Victoria Labor could pick up the seat of Chisolm which Gladys Liu holds by a wafer margin on 0.5 per cent. Reid, Robertson, Bradden and Bass are also shaping up to be key battlegrounds for the 2022 election, as is Boothby in South Australia which is currently held by Nicole Flint. Flint has announced her retirement from politics at the next election.
The latest date Prime Minister Scott Morrison can schedule a standard election in 21st May 2022, however the PM could choose to schedule two separate polls for the senate and the House of Representatives, leaving him the option of sending Australians to the polls twice within a few months. The latest a House of Representatives election can be held is September 2022.
Given the shambolic situation in parliament’s final sitting weeks, where coalition MPs crossed the floor several times, there had been speculation the PM would call the election sooner to avoid further debate over controversial legislation such as the Religious Discrimination Bill, and fend off calls for a federal integrity commission. Given the latest poll numbers, the PM might be looking for a date further into the year.
Graeme Watson
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