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Is same sex marriage inevitable?

A new Galaxy Poll has revealed 75 per cent of Australian’s believe that same sex marriage will inevitably become law. The poll was commissioned by lobby group Marriage Equality Australia (AME) and the Parent’s and Friends of Lesbians and Gays (PFLAG) and was conducted late last month.

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The results revealed gender differences in opinions with 80 per cent of women responding in the affirmative, with less agreement from men who showed a 71 per cent result. In the over 50’s age bracket, 68 per cent of respondents agreed that marriage equality was foreseeable, while nine per cent of people in this age group were unsure.

In South Australia there was a higher level agreement than other states with 84 per cent of people surveyed saying they believed that same sex marriage would occur in Australia.

Unlike previous polls commissioned by AME which have focused on the level of support for same sex marriage this poll was a change of direction asking if people thought change was inevitable. Speaking to OUTinPerth, Alex Greenwich from Australian Marriage Equality explained the tactic.

‘The reason why we polled on the question of do you think it will happen was to find out whether Australians had become comfortable with the idea of same sex marriage being part of our future and whether they had accepted it as something that was a reality.’

Greenwich noted that he was surprised by the result but anecdotal evidence of support for same sex marriage was coming from many different walks of life. Greenwich noted that recent campaigns to encourage people to contact their local politician had been working but not all who supported the move had necessarily taken action.

‘The reason people hadn’t been contacting their MP’s [about same sex marriage] is reinforced by this polling, people just assume it’s going to happen, but it’s up to us to make it happen… to make it a reality people have to take action.’

In a statement Green’s same sex marriage spokesperson Senator Sarah Hanson Young welcomed the results of the poll saying,

‘Today’s poll confirms what those of us campaigning on this issue for sometime already know – the community recognises that marriage equality is an idea whose time has come. It is now time for the government and old parties to catch up.’

Greenwich noted the next major challenges for the campaign were the Australian Labor Party’s national conference in December and persuading the Liberal Party to allow their members to have a conscience vote when the issue is next raised in parliament.

‘I think there will be widespread disappointment if the ALP does not form a new party policy in support of marriage equality, I am hopeful they will take the step the majority of Australians want.’

The Australian Christian Lobby released a statement urging caution about the poll’s results. Lyle Shelton, ACL’s Chief of Staff sees the poll in a different light,

‘Asking people whether they think it’s inevitable the law will change is a loaded question and is not the same as whether they understand the implications of legalising same-sex marriage.’

Shelton argued that once a debate is held on the topic issues including the rights of children, free speech and religious expression would have an effect. The ACL stated that they have urged the Labor party not to water down their policy at their national conference.

Graeme Watson

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